On 19 October 2024, British Columbia (B.C.) held their 2024 Provincial General Election. However, at the time of publication, voting is too close to declare an official winner. As of Sunday, 20 October 2024, the NDP have been elected or leading 46 seats, 45 for the Conservatives, and two won for the Green Party. According to a statement from Elections B.C., automatic recounts will occur where the winner is decided by 100 votes or less. These votes and mail ballots received in person will be tallied in the final count between 26 and 28 October. As mail-in ballots are revealed throughout the week, a winner could be determined before the final count.
Carbon pricing and complementary climate policies were at the forefront of campaigning for the provincial election. The NDP was in power during the development of the provincial OBPS and related policies, including the provincial oil and gas emissions cap and the Net-Zero New Industry Policy. Carbon pricing has been a key component of the province's regulatory framework, with the 2008 Carbon Tax being the first in North America. As a result, no major changes were initially expected following the election outcome.
However, both parties disrupted this assumption by signalling their intentions to remove key policies. The Conservative platform included removing the Carbon Tax and the B.C. Low Carbon Fuel Standards (BC-LCFS), citing their impact on gas prices. Party Leader John Rustad views the OBPS as a "hidden tax" that unfairly burdens consumers, citing businesses pass the costs on through higher prices for goods and services. This raises the possibility of the new provincial OBPS also being eliminated—the B.C. Conservatives have committed to removing all carbon pricing policies and ensuring they are neither replaced nor reintroduced under their leadership.
However, it is important to note that the Update to the Pan-Canadian Approach to Carbon Pollution Pricing 2023-2030 requires that all jurisdictions in Canada have a price on carbon. Therefore, the removal of current systems would result in the imposition of the federal backstop on the jurisdiction (i.e. the Federal OBPS and Fuel Charge). A change in the federal government in an upcoming election could open the opportunity for the removal of B.C. programs without a federal backstop imposed, but this is uncertain until a federal election occurs, at the latest in October 2025 though likely earlier.
However, there is no federal requirement for fuel standards, meaning the BC-LCFS can be removed by the Conservative party with no replacement. If the BC-LCFS were removed, this would eliminate the incentive for biofuels to flow into B.C. specifically and would put upward pressure on the Federal Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) credit prices as a credit generator would no longer be able to leverage the incentives from both.
On the other side, Eby has indicated the NDP’s understanding of the federal backstop and would only remove the Carbon Tax if a change in federal government allows for its removal without the imposition of the federal fuel charge. In this case, however, we could see upward pressure on the BC-LCFS credit price since the size of deficits from gasoline and diesel may increase, as the gasoline and diesel pools could increase in response to the removed Carbon Tax. On the other hand, low-CI fuels such as Renewable Diesel that use natural gas as a feedstock may become less expensive to produce, as the carbon tax on natural gas would be removed. The NDP has also stated that they will increase the number of EV charging stations, which could add to the supply of credits in the program.
ClearBlue will continue to monitor the election outcome and its implications, alongside other 2024 provincial elections, including New Brunswick’s election on 21 October and Saskatchewan’s election on 28 October.