Monday, 10 February 2025, marked the deadline for Parties under the Paris Agreement to submit their 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). With official submissions from only 13 nations, the UN extended the deadline to September 2025 for the 180+ Parties that failed to submit their updated NDCs.
NDC Refresher
Established under the 2015 Paris Agreement, NDCs are central to global efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. These plans encompass all sectors and greenhouse gases, detailing specific mitigation and adaptation strategies. The Paris Agreement's "ratchet mechanism" mandates that countries submit updated NDCs every five years to demonstrate increased ambition.
Unlike general climate targets, NDCs are official commitments reviewed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They require detailed implementation strategies, sectoral plans, assumptions, and methodologies to ensure transparency. For instance, Canada, Indonesia, and Japan have set emissions reduction targets for 2035 but have yet to submit their respective NDCs.
Lack of Ambition Remains
Excluding Zimbabwe, Climate Action Tracker states that the submitted NDCs account for only 17.3% of global emissions and 8.4% of the population. However, these numbers include the United States, despite its impending exit from the Paris Agreement.
Research published on the same day as the NDC submission deadline highlighted that we may have already passed the 1.5°C threshold for limiting global temperature rise—though it is too early to confirm due to data and temperature variability. This paper adds to mounting pressure on countries to set more ambitious emissions reduction targets to address the widening gap in emissions reductions.
Downstream Impacts
Delayed and incomplete NDC submissions hinder effective mitigation strategies by creating data gaps. These gaps undermine key reports such as the Global Stocktake, conducted every five years, and the annual NDC Synthesis Report. Information uncertainty could impact participants in Article 6 mechanisms by altering their activities due to perceptions of greater risk. While NDCs can pose administrative challenges, they remain critical for policymakers and for coordinating collective climate action.
Looking Ahead
The aim for the updated deadline is to ensure that the 2025 NDC Synthesis Report can be published before COP30, as well as allowing Parties time to develop more comprehensive NDCs. The UN's preference for this approach, instead of rushing countries, was reiterated by UN climate chief Simon Stiell last week when he said, "Taking a bit more time to ensure these plans are first-rate makes sense."
The first Biennial Transparency Report for each Party was due at the end of 2024, so these will also trickle in throughout the year. Looking ahead, the 2025 Bonn Climate Change Conference in June will be a key event, offering a platform to discuss NDCs and shape negotiations for COP30 in November in Belém, Brazil.