Canada Publishes Updated Emission Reduction Targets

On 12 December 2024, Canada announced a new greenhouse gas emissions reduction target of 45-50% below 2005 levels by 2035, building on the existing 2030 target of a 40-45% reduction. This target is part of Canada's commitment to the Paris Agreement and the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, which mandate increasingly ambitious emissions reduction targets leading to net-zero emissions by 2050. The decision was informed by scientific research, international climate commitments, Indigenous knowledge, and public consultations. This target reflects a balanced approach to drive green innovation while being responsive to Canada's unique trade-exposed and natural resource-dependent economy, as well as concerns around affordability.

Political Implications

The new 2035 target has political implications, as it requires cooperation and alignment across federal, provincial, and territorial governments. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Minister Steven Guilbeault emphasized the need for constructive collaboration with provinces to achieve this ambitious goal, highlighting that the federal government cannot act alone. This target also underscores Canada's commitment to global climate leadership, aligning with the Paris Agreement's requirement for progressively more ambitious domestic climate targets. The political landscape, particularly with upcoming elections and varying provincial stances, could introduce uncertainties, but the legally binding nature of the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act provides a framework for accountability and transparency.

Domestic & International Action

Over the next decade, Canada will implement a robust framework of domestic policies to drive emissions reductions. The current federal government will continue driving the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) through key measures including carbon pricing, the Clean Fuels Regulation, and the development of the Clean Electricity Regulation and Oil and Gas GHG Emissions Cap. Progress reports in 2025 and 2027 will evaluate the ERP's impact and identify additional actions to meet the 2030 target to ensure long-term success. Additionally, the Canadian government will engage extensively with provincial, territorial, Indigenous Peoples, and the private sector to develop the 2035 ERP focusing on net-zero aligned opportunities and emerging technologies.

The publication of the updated emissions reduction targets has revived the mention of policy tools such as a Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which were previously considered. Canada will continue to explore ways to leverage international cooperation to achieve higher climate ambition beyond domestic reductions and its approach to the use of measures such as CBAM and ITMOs. Canada will continue to support global initiatives like the Powering Past Coal Alliance and the Global Methane Pledge and provide climate finance to developing countries to strengthen international cooperation.

In early 2025, Canada will formally submit the updated target (NDC) to the UN as part of its requirement as a Party to the Paris Agreement.  The government will include a description of its key measures to achieve its targets and the latest projections to enhance transparency and accountability. 

ClearBlue will continue to monitor developments and provide ongoing updates and analysis.