On 4 September 2024, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced the termination of the supply-and-confidence agreement between the NDP and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government. The agreement, reached between the two parties in March 2022, required the NDP to support the Liberal government in confidence votes while, in return, providing legislative action on key NDP priorities. The agreement was the first of its kind at the federal level in Canada.
This announcement comes days following Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre writing a letter requesting that Jagmeet Singh pull out of the agreement. Poilievre urged a vote of non-confidence, which would result in holding a federal election before the scheduled date of October 2025, as soon as October 2024. However, Singh maintains that the decision to pull out of the agreement has been in the works for months due to differences in “values on corporate greed” and is unrelated to Poilievre’s letter.
The termination of the supply-and-confidence agreement does not automatically trigger an election but instead opens the possibility for that outcome if a non-confidence vote is presented.
A vote of non-confidence can be triggered in several ways. First, if the Liberal government loses a vote on key measures, such as the upcoming Fall Economic Statement or Budget 2025. This treatment can also be designated on other bills or issues, where if the government loses the vote, it is considered a non-confidence vote. The opposition, currently the Conservative party, can also introduce a specific motion declaring that the House has lost confidence in the government. If this motion passes, the government is considered to have lost the confidence of the House.
If the Liberal government loses a vote of non-confidence, the Prime Minister can either resign or request a dissolution of Parliament from the Governor General, which would trigger an election. The exact timing of an election would be decided by the Governor General, in consultation with Justin Trudeau, when dissolving Parliament. The minimum campaigning period is 36 days from the official calling of the election but is typically five to seven weeks to allow for voter preparation.
The House of Commons will reconvene on 16 September 2024, at which point the NDP will vote on matters on a case-by-case basis, with no confirmation on how the party would act if a confidence vote was presented. Otherwise, the federal election will take place next October 2025 at the latest, at the end of Trudeau’s second term as Prime Minister.
The upcoming federal election will be a pivotal point for Canada's climate and clean energy policies.
The contrasting approaches of the Conservative and Liberal parties introduce considerable uncertainty regarding the future of carbon pricing and other environmental initiatives. Looking ahead, it is crucial to assess how these political dynamics will shape Canada's climate strategy and its ability to stay competitive in the global transition toward clean technology and sustainability.
ClearBlue will continue to provide updates to clients and provide support in the changing political landscape.