China’s carbon markets are accelerating with landmark developments in both the national Emissions Trading System (ETS) and voluntary carbon market, offering fresh avenues for compliance and investment.
1. CCER Market Revival Sparks Demand
On March 6, 2025, China’s voluntary carbon market marked a pivotal moment with the first issuance of new China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) credits since the program’s 2017 suspension. Nine offshore wind and solar thermal projects received 9.48 million metric tons of CCERs. Trading launched at the Beijing Green Exchange (BGE) saw robust activity, with prices starting at an average of CNY 80.45/ton on March 7 before surging to CNY 107.36/ton by March 10, surpassing national ETS allowance prices. Compliance entities can now offset up to 5% of annual ETS obligations using post-2024 CCERs—a rule driving intense demand.
2. Renewables Lead, More Issuance AheadRenewable energy projects dominate the CCER pipeline, with additional issuances expected soon. Afforestation projects remain limited due to regulatory scrutiny, underscoring renewables’ role as the near-term offset supply backbone.
3. Premier Confirms ETS Expansion at 2025 Two SessionsDuring the 2025 Two Sessions in March, China’s annual legislative and political advisory meetings, Premier Li Qiang delivered a pivotal government work report explicitly confirming plans to expand the national ETS. The Premier announced that China will “speed up the establishment of a framework for controlling the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions and expand the coverage of the China Carbon Emission Trading Exchange to more sectors”. This high-level endorsement signals the imminent inclusion of aluminum, cement, and steel into the ETS by 2025, tripling covered emissions from 5 billion to 8 billion tons annually. Industrial enterprises in these sectors must comply with 2024 emissions obligations by December 2025, marking a critical step toward achieving China’s dual carbon goals.
As China’s carbon markets mature, timely insights into CCER project pipelines, pricing trends, and ETS compliance strategies are critical. At ClearBlue Markets, we have recently expanded our China Carbon Market Intelligence to cover:
- CCER Project Development & Advisory
- China ETS Market Analytics & Price Forecasting to 2035
- China ETS enterprises data
Stay ahead in this dynamic landscape—contact us to leverage our expertise and navigate China’s evolving carbon opportunities.