From Liberal Party Debates to Ford’s Majority: Canadian Leadership and Carbon Policy Updates

Last week, the liberal leadership debate brought together key contenders seeking to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as party leader. The debates showcased their differing approaches on issues like climate policy, economic strategy, and U.S. trade relations. Each candidate sought to distinguish themselves from Trudeau while presenting a compelling alternative to Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in the next federal election, which could be triggered in the spring by a potential vote of no-confidence once Parliament resumes on 24 March 2025. 

While much of the discussion centred on how each candidate would address U.S. President Trump directly and the threat of tariffs on the Canadian economy, carbon pricing was brought into focus as the final topic of the evening. The candidates expressed support for pausing or eliminating the consumer-facing carbon tax, which is a deviation from the liberal party’s platform and a pillar of Canada’s climate strategy. This may also prompt the conservative party to revise its campaign message, as removing the carbon tax would no longer be a unique policy advantage. 

The Candidates, Their Platforms, and Carbon Pricing

Platform:  Carney is running on a platform of economic growth, climate leadership, and strengthening the middle class.

Carbon Pricing: Carney expressed his support for removing the consumer-facing carbon tax, arguing that it is divisive and contributes to less than 10% of emission reductions. He believes there are more effective ways to reduce emissions and proposes a model where large polluters compensate Canadians directly, which he outlined in his recently released Climate Plan.

Energy Security: Carney called for collaboration with First Ministers to advance both clean and conventional energy projects. He stressed the urgency of moving forward with speed, prioritizing carbon capture and storage, and reducing Canada’s reliance on oil imports from the U.S.

Platform: Freeland highlights her experience in economic management, foreign affairs, and national unity.

Carbon Pricing: While acknowledging Trudeau’s leadership in advancing climate action, Freeland argued the carbon tax wasn’t working for many Canadians. She proposed incentives like the Canada Growth Fund to accelerate the green transition.

Energy Security:  Freeland framed Canada’s energy resources as a national strength and argued that the country should double down on its position as a global energy superpower. She pointed to opportunities in uranium, hydro, wind, and traditional energy sources, emphasizing that a national strategy could enhance economic and energy security while strengthening partnerships with European allies.

Platform: Gould is focused on grassroots connections, social policies, and Indigenous reconciliation.

Carbon Pricing: Gould supported halting further increases to the carbon tax and believes the government did not effectively communicate the policy’s benefits. She highlighted affordability concerns and the benefits of the rebate system, in which households receive quarterly carbon rebates. 

Energy Security:  Gould urged Canadians to look toward the future and consider how the country can contribute to global energy solutions. She highlighted the opportunities in renewable energy and Canada’s potential to export its expertise worldwide.

Platform:  Bayliss positions himself as the candidate most distant from Trudeau, emphasizing wealth creation and modernization.

Carbon Pricing: Bayliss advocated for a polluter-pays model that applies to both industry and individuals. He stressed that clean air and water have inherent costs and argued that the government should focus on addressing environmental challenges directly while supporting green companies. 

Energy Security: Bayliss emphasized the need for energy security, proposing federal management of two major pipeline corridors to provide stability and investments in small modular reactors (SMRs) and transmission lines to support the electrification of the country.

The leadership vote is now underway, with the new leader set to be announced on 9 March 2025. Despite their differing approaches to climate policy,  candidates agree that the consumer-facing carbon tax will be removed or paused (Gould), signalling a clear and certain shift in Canada’s climate strategy regardless of the election outcome.

Ford Wins Third Majority in Ontario

Meanwhile, Ontario’s Progressive Conservative Party, led by Premier Doug Ford, secured a third consecutive majority government in a snap provincial election. The election, called over a year early, centred on economic issues, particularly U.S. President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods.

Ford campaigned on economic resilience, emphasizing the need for a strong mandate to counter these threats. Premier Doug Ford's campaign did not emphasize new initiatives on climate change or carbon pricing. The party maintained its existing policies, focusing on economic issues such as opposing proposed U.S. tariffs. Therefore, there are no expected changes to the Ontario EPS program as a result of this election. 

ClearBlue will continue to follow these developments closely and will provide updates as needed.