Last week, the ClearBlue team attended IETA’s North America Climate Summit for New York Climate Week to contribute key insights and learn from other industry professionals on compliance and voluntary carbon markets.
Notably, regulators from the New York Cap and Invest program (NYCI) unveiled at a session that the program will utilize the WCI market administrator platform to facilitate auctions, registration, and financial services. This was done per a competitive process, which still has to be contractually finalized by New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA).
The regulators emphasized that this does not translate to linking programs. However, this move could be a precursor to eventual linkage once NYCI is operational. Linking programs is generally considered to improve fungibility and flexibility for compliance in the program, which underscores the integrity of programs and their ability to drive decarbonization at lower costs. Washington State is currently undergoing the process of linking its program with WCI to be able to leverage these benefits. Other unknown variables, such as interplay with RGGI and timing for draft regulation, remain unknown. However, NYCI will likely be operational in 2026 despite initial plans for a 2025 start.
ClearBlue’s Market Intelligence Officer Jennifer McIsaac spoke on a panel on the outlook for North American compliance programs RGGI, WCI, and Washington’s Cap and Invest, sharing key insights on the direction of these programs. Just this week, RGGI released a program review that introduced a new Exploratory Policy Scenario with a new cap trajectory that is looser over the shorter term, creating some bearish pressure for RGA prices.
Additionally, a session was held on the state of carbon markets in Canada. A representative from the Government of Alberta shared that they don’t consider the TIER market to be oversupplied, and panelists commended the long-standing program for driving significant and consistent decarbonization in the province. Please see ClearBlue’s recently released Alberta TIER Supply and Demand report for our insights on this program. Panelists discussed that the uncertainty of carbon pricing tied to upcoming elections in North America is not conducive for programs to be effective and that the ability of programs to withstand various ruling parties is key to unlocking further capital.
The certainty and confidence that these programs will continue allows further investment to be triggered, creating a self-perpetuating cycle of decarbonization at lower costs.
ClearBlue will continue to monitor developments, provide updates, and support clients regarding these programs.