New Brunswick 2024: Liberal Win Signals Potential Shift in Carbon Policy Amid National Pricing Debates
On 21 October 2024, New Brunswick held its 2024 provincial election, resulting in a win for the Liberal Party and new Premier Susan Holt. The Liberal Party won a majority government with 31 seats total, dethroning the incumbent Progressive Conservative Party Leader Blaine Higgs winning only 16 seats. The Green Party secured two seats.
Holt’s platform was built on reform to the healthcare system and rent caps, but there were also a number of promises made regarding sustainability and energy. First, Holt promised to remove the provincial sales tax on electricity, reducing bills by 10 percent. She also promised to remove the Gas Tax, resulting in savings of an estimated four cents per litre for consumers. Many of these changes are targeted at increasing affordability for residents.
While there has been an emphasis on the need to accelerate renewable energy projects, this is noted with the distinction that the government will “work with the federal government to ensure big emitters bear the brunt of the price on carbon”. New Brunswick transitioned from the Federal Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS) in 2021 to its own provincial OBPS regulating large industrial emitters. However, the federal fuel charge is imposed on the jurisdiction.
Throughout Holt’s campaign, she promised to reduce this cost for New Brunswick residents. However, no specific plan has been communicated, and any removal of provincial systems would result in the imposition of the federal systems on the jurisdiction. While there was an indication of removing the federal fuel charge, no alternative has been proposed. Some New Brunswick households are already receiving a break on the fuel charge. Until 2027, light fuel oil used exclusively for home heating is exempt from the fuel charge, which primarily benefits Atlantic households.
The province could propose a Cap-and-Trade system that would be able to replace both the OBPS and the federal fuel charge, similar to the structure in Quebec. Nova Scotia’s Liberal Party recently tabled Bill 487 to re-implement a provincial Cap-and-Trade system, to link with neighbouring provinces such as New Brunswick for an Atlantic-wide system. However, this bill is in its first reading and no indication has been made of the interest of other provinces to link.
These election results come during an eventful month for provincial election results and their implications on carbon policy. Carbon pricing has become more prevalent in the core of election platforms across Canada, often citing affordability issues. Last week, B.C. held its provincial election, where the fate of the provincial Carbon Tax, OBPS, and Low Carbon Fuel Standard is decided in the final recount this past weekend.
Further, Saskatchewan’s provincial election is taking place today, 28 October 2024. All three parties are aligned on carbon pricing, opposing the federal fuel charge imposed on the province. The current Saskatchewan Party has gone further to halt the remittance of the fuel charge back to the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) this year. As of April, the CRA said the province owed them CAD 56 million.
ClearBlue will continue to monitor the outcomes of these provincial elections and the impact on provincial carbon pricing programs.