ClearBlue’s latest report delves into recent developments within the UK Emissions Trading System (ETS) and provides our updated supply and demand balances and a forecast for allowance prices through 2030.
Highlights of the Report:
- General Election Announcement: The unexpected general election called for July 4 by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has brought climate policies into sharp focus. With Labour leading in the polls, their commitment to accelerating clean energy adoption contrasts with the current Conservative strategies.
- UK Emissions Authority Consultations: Recently published consultations propose expanding UK ETS coverage to the waste sector and integrating greenhouse gas removals into the system. Neither will be surplus to the cap.
- Market Dynamics: Since the second quarter of 2023, UK Allowance price drops have attracted a wave of financial speculators, including investment funds and firms seeking new opportunities.
- Updated Demand Forecasts and Allocations: Access ClearBlue analysts’ updated year-over-year demand forecasts. Learn about the impact of a minor upward revision to free allocations for 2021-2025 by the UK ETS authority on our assumptions and balances.
- Market Outlook: Discover ClearBlue's most likely market scenario for 2024-2025 and beyond, with revised UKA price forecasts in response to volatility stemming from the general election and the expectation that institutions will publish responses to several ongoing consultations, including future market policy, free allocations review, scope expansion to waste, and the integration of GHG removals.
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