Trump vs. Harris: The 2024 Election’s Impact on U.S. Clean Energy, Climate Policy, and Washington’s Cap-and-Invest Program
On 5 November 2024, the U.S. election will take place and is expected to be a pivotal moment for clean energy and climate policy. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris represent significantly different agendas. The outcome of the election will also have implications at the state level, particularly in Washington with Initiative 2117 (I-2117), a ballot measure to repeal the state’s Cap-and-Invest program.
A Trump victory would likely mean an “energy dominance” approach, with support for the fossil fuel industry at the forefront. During his previous term, Trump rolled back over 100 environmental regulations, including the Clean Power Plan and methane emission limits, while expressing skepticism about climate change. The previous battle between the Trump administration and California could also be reignited, taking place during his first presidential term when he challenged California’s emissions standards and Cap-and-Trade linkage with Quebec. The rollback of federal policies from a Trump re-election could again result in strengthened state and regional policies to account for the decrease in climate ambition at the national level.
Some aspects of Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could remain with the Trump administration. Much of the IRA funding is directed toward red states, where manufacturing plants, battery production, and renewable energy jobs are growing. Although Trump has criticized the IRA, the Act benefits key sectors in his support base, such as oil and gas, which receive subsidies and tax credits under certain IRA provisions such as 45Q. This creates uncertainty about whether he would selectively maintain certain IRA subsidies for these industries while scaling back others tied to renewable energy.
In contrast, Kamala Harris has publicly championed strong climate policies throughout her career. As Vice President, she supported the Biden administration’s ambitious climate plans, including the IRA, which funds clean energy infrastructure, provides clean energy tax credits, and aims to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As Senator, she co-sponsored the Green New Deal resolution and advocated for investments in clean energy jobs and climate resilience. Her administration would likely aim to maintain the core elements of the IRA or even strengthen it, emphasizing investment in solar, wind, and electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure, and enforce federal climate targets.
Meanwhile, at the state level, Washington’s I-2117 to repeal the state’s current carbon pricing system and prohibit any future program adds a layer of uncertainty to the election. The Cap-and-Invest program began regulation on 1 January 2023 but quickly faced backlash after being tied to high gas prices in the state. With uncertainty surrounding the election outcome, and the future of federal climate support, allowance prices in Washington’s market have fluctuated significantly, from highs of USD 70 at the beginning of the program to lows of USD 28 after I-2117 gained momentum.
Recent polling shows a divide in public opinion over I-2117, with support for the Cap-and-Invest program weakened due to campaigning on its impact on energy prices. If I-2117 passes, Washington would lose the main regulatory lever in its emissions reduction plan and create uncertainty about reaching the state’s ambitious GHG emission reduction targets. Therefore, other policies are expected to take its place if repealed. To pass I-2117, a minimum of a third of voters in the state must place a vote on the initiative and submitted votes must achieve a simple majority.
Washington’s Secretary of State has up to three weeks to count votes, but results could come sooner as ballots are counted. Nationally, the presidential election outcome may take days, especially if tight races or mail-in ballot delays occur. The outcomes—both for the presidential race and state-level initiatives like I-2117—are expected to shape the U.S. climate and energy landscape for years to come.
ClearBlue will continue to monitor the outcomes of the US election.